[civsoc-mw] FW: Mozambique 500 - Special report on Cabo Delgado intervention; media crackdown; Covid-19 - 3Sep2020

Thu Sep 3 17:01:16 CAT 2020

Fyi. d

From: J.Hanlon <j.hanlon at open.ac.uk> 
Sent: 03 September 2020 16:19
To: Dev-Mozambique-List <dev-mozambique-list at open.ac.uk>; Dev-Mozambiquemedia-List <dev-mozambiquemedia-list at open.ac.uk>
Subject: Mozambique 500 - Special report on Cabo Delgado intervention; media crackdown; Covid-19 - 3Sep2020

MOZAMBIQUE 500
News reports & clippings

3 September 2020
=========

Editor: Joseph Hanlon (  <mailto:j.hanlon at open.ac.uk> j.hanlon at open.ac.uk)

To subscribe:  tinyurl.com/sub-moz <http://tinyurl.com/sub-moz> 

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Articles may be freely reprinted but please cite the source.
===========================
Attached: this newsletter in pdf and a special report: How might military and economic intervention shape the war?
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From the editor
I started with this newsletter in 2000 just to report the murder of friend and journalist Carlos Cardoso and the suffocating of 80 people in a Montepuez jail, and never intended it to be permanent. Here we are 20 years, 500 issues and 7000 subscribers later - much to my surprise. This has always been a personal exercise done unpaid in my spare time, and there have been many gaps and changes. For example, during the electoral period, I did an election newsletter with 465 district correspondents and did not have time to write this one. Times change, and in 20 years there has been a growth of social media and good reporting on Mozambique in English and Portuguese. So the next change is less frequent publication, with more summary reports and more articles attempting to put events into context. For those who want the news reports, there is a list of contacts at the end of this newsletter. Many thanks for your support and I hope you find the modified format interesting and useful.  Joseph Hanlon
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In this issue
Cabo Delgado war special report:
How might military and economic intervention shape the war?
In a separate pdf and on http://bit.ly/CDelgadoIntervene
Media crackdown continues
+ Canal firebombed
+ Government still after Castel-Branco
Covid-19
+ Numbers jump as restrictions eased
+ Maputo Is the centre
Cabo Delgado war
+ South Africa wants to intervene
+ Attempt to retake Mocimboa da Praia
+ Islands attacked
+ IS not driving the war - M+G
Other daily and weekly news sources
======================
Looking ahead in Cabo Delgado:
   How might military and economic
   intervention shape the war?

Pressure is growing to attempt a military solution to the Cabo Delgado insurgency. Initially this would ensure that liquefied natural gas (LNG) production can be started as planned largely off shore, and thus that the war could be ignored. Only the Afungi peninsula and a small base in Pemba need to be kept secure and all access can be by sea and air. The gas companies do not need Mocimboa de Praia or the road. Planes up to 737 size can land at Afungi and the LNG trains and gas wells can be built with material brought by sea from Nacala.

Next, and much more complex, would be significant foreign military invention to try to stop the war itself.

A three part military plan is currently under discussion. 
+ Marine security around the gas wells and along the coast would be provided by a foreign navy, probably French, but with possible United States involvement. 
+ Land security would initially involve up to 500 Mozambican special forces controlling villages near Afungi, with funding and supplies from the gas companies. A second phase would involve up to 750 more special forces patrolling the road south from Palma, protecting a Pemba base, and perhaps attacking insurgents.
+ Third would be the use of private military companies (PMCs, mercenaries) in two ways. The limited air support currently provided by Dyck Advisory Services (DAG) would be expanded. The ground units of Mozambican special forces would probably be accompanied by PMC "advisors" both to try to reduce abuse of civilians and to increase the effectiveness of attacks on insurgents.

It sounds good on paper, but agreement, implementation and effectiveness face a host of local problems. Mozambique has become a "resource curse" state, with declining levels of democracy and a predominate party ruling an increasingly corrupt state through a patronage system, and with powerful and unchallengeable party barons. Inequality is increasing and in recent years there has been little economic development. Debate continues about the origins of the insurgency, but growing inequality and failure to share the resource wealth is agreed to be fuelling the insurgency. The Integrated Development Agency for the North (ADIN) launched on 31 August may be a first attempt to bypass the party barons and get some money to disillusioned young people.

Powerful special interests not only prevent the amelioration of inequalities, but are also blocking the proposed military response. In a special study, we look at how blockages on the path of military intervention might be removed and what shape the war could take. 

The full special report is attached as a pdf to this newsletter and for smart phone readers is also available on http://bit.ly/Moz-500ph

Media crackdown continues

Canal de Mocambique was firebombed on Sunday 23 August. Attackers broke through two security doors, stole computers, then sprayed petrol around the office and set fire to it. Canal investigations have exposed corruption at the top of Frelimo, most recently a battle between Frelimo elites for the control of fuel imports. Earlier it published a secret contract between Anadarko and the Ministry of Defence for troops to guard Afungi in which payments went into personal accounts. Rather than investigate an illegal contract, the Attorney General's office said Canal would be prosecuted for published a secret document. Executive editor Matias Guente was interrogated on 10 July and was expected to be interrogated again this week. There was also a failed attempt to kidnap Guente late last year.

The Public Prosecutor’s Office has appealed for a second time against the acquittal of economist Carlos Nuno Castel-Branco and the editor of MediaFax, Fernando Mbanze, accused of libelling former president Armando Guebuza. The appeal will be the second after a lower court rejected the prosecutors’ first appeal against their acquittal in September 2015. The case is over a post by Castel-Branco on his Facebook page in November 2013, severely criticising the then-president and calling for him to resign. Mediafax reprinted the post.

The Pope defended Bishop Lisboa and President Nyusi was effectively forced to apologise for attacking the Bishop. President Nyusi and his praise singers strongly attacked the Bishop of Pemba for defending rights of people in Cabo Delgado. (14-17 August) Nyusi stressed that Bishop Lisboa was a foreigner living in Mozambique. But the Pope publicly defended his Bishop, and privately pointed out that he had supported Nyusi's campaign with an unprecedented Papal visit to Mozambique during the election campaign. With tail between his legs, Nyusi visited the Bishop when he was in Pemba on 31 August.

Covid-19

Cases have jumped while restrictions have been eased. New Covid-19 cases reached 123 on 1 September and the number of new cases in August was double the number in July. There have been 25 deaths. The Council of Ministers said Tuesday (1 Sept) that is vas "very preoccupied" that people were ignoring the restrictions, which have acutally been loosened under the renewed state of emergency.

3.8% of people Maputo have had Covid-19, according to a survey by the National Health Institute which tested 10,000 people. Of those, 71% have been without symptoms. Half of htose tested are randomly selected, and the other half are from high exposure groups. In the Maputo fish market, 9.5% of traders have had Covid-19. More than half of the 4117 confirmed Covid-19 cases in Mozambique are in Maputo and Matola. 

Daily updated data and good graphs are posted on https://covidmoz.netlify.app/
Official daily Covid-19 reports are posted on https://www.misau.gov.mz/index.php/covid-19-boletins-diarios

Cabo Delgado war
For war updates, Cabo Ligado Weekly on https://acleddata.com/cabo-ligado-mozambique-conflict-observatory/ To subscribe https://bit.ly/CaboSub and click on "Cabo Ligado: Mozambique Conflict Observatory" at the bottom of the form.

South Africa joins the competition to provide coastal protection, but Mozambique is reluctant

“If it’s more intelligence support, if it’s the SA Navy patrolling the coast, if it is assistance from our Defence Force, we as South Africa stand ready” to be involved in Cabo Delgado, South Africa's International Relations and Co-operation Minister Naledi Pandor told Parliament’s International Relations Committee yesterday. (Wednesday 2 Sept) Her presentation noted that maritime security could be "with other partners". France and the US are also bidding to take over maritime security.

But she stressed to the Committee that Mozambique must ask for SADC or South African involvement, and it had not done so. At the 19 May summit SADC had agreed to support Mozambique on the Cabo Delgado insurgency, but Pandor told the Committee that it was up to Mozambique to decide what help it needed. At the 17 August SADC summit, Mozambique was reminded that at the 19 May meeting it had been asked to submit a roadmap of its needs. It still has not done so. Without that, South African cannot even send fact-finding mission to Cabo Delgado, she said. (Daily Maverick, 3 Sept)

Comment: As we note in the new special report today and have reported earlier, there are huge divisions in Frelimo and the military and police about the role of foreign military forces. Pandor's frustration suggests that Frelimo still has not resolved its internal conflicts. jh

An attempt to retake Mocimboa da Praia has begun. On Saturday (29 Aug) 20-30 vehicles carrying paramilitary riot police (Rapid Intervention Unit, UIR, who are doing most of the fighting) went on the main N380 road from Pemba to Mueda. Recently armed local militias in the villagers of Miangalewa, Chitunda, and Xitaxi in the lowlands of Miudumbe district were told on 27-28 August to move people away as a major military operation "would happen in the coming days.". And on 30 August the UIR convoy met a group of 100 insurgents in Miangalewa and, supported by DAG helicopters, appear to have won the battle. UIR based in Mueda have this week been fighting their way down the road toward Mocimboa da Praia. (Cabo Ligado 1 Sept, Pinnacle News) 

Islands close to the coast are being attacked by insurgents, since the insurgents took control of Mocimboa da Praia port on 11 August. Many people from the mainland had taken refuge there from fighting, and are now fleeing back to the coast. The village of Pangane is said to have 5000 refugees.  People have been killed and kidnapped in attacks on two islands and boats. And in a still unexplained incident, two dhows carrying refugees from the coastal village of Nkomangano were attacked by two motor boats; one dhow was sunk killing 40 people. People on the other dhow said the attackers wore military uniforms, but it is unclear if the attackers were Mozambican navy or insurgents, because the insurgents have obtained many military uniforms. Indeed, for the 11 August attack, many insurgents simply walked into Mocimboa da Praia in government uniforms. (Zitamar 2 Sept, MediaFax 19 Aug)

My article "Isis is not driving the Cabo Delgado war" was published by the Mail + Guardian: https://mg.co.za/africa/2020-08-25-isis-is-not-driving-the-cabo-delgado-war/

Other daily and weekly news sources

In English:
Club of Mozambique on https://clubofmozambique.com/latest-news/ reprints a good daily set of news articles, including translating some articles from the Mozambican press and LUSA into English. Subscribe on https://clubofmozambique.com/newsletter/
Zitamar on https://zitamar.com/ is the best daily newsletter, but with a partial paywall (means only the first paragraphs of most article can be read - still useful)
Cabo Ligado on https://acleddata.com/cabo-ligado-mozambique-conflict-observatory/ The best weekly war updates. To subscribe https://bit.ly/CaboSub and click on "Cabo Ligado: Mozambique Conflict Observatory" at the bottom of the form.

Daily news in Portuguese:
@Verdade on http://www.verdade.co.mz/
OPais on http://opais.sapo.mz/ Partial paywall
Carta de Mocambique on https://cartamz.com/ Best investigative and economic. Partial paywall.

Research and pressure groups in Portuguese with regular reports
Centro de Integridade Publica (CIP) on https://cipmoz.org/
Observatorio do Meio Rural (OMR) on https://omrmz.org/
Instituto de Estudo Social e Economicos (IESE) on https://www.iese.ac.mz/
Centro Para Democracia e Desenvolvimento (CDD) on https://cddmoz.org/ publishes a daily political comment and now runs the Forum de Monitoria do Orcamento (FMO) which campaigns on debt.
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Links to my books and reports as well as other media links, and a full privacy statement, are on the pdf of the newsletter.  Previous editions of this newsletter: bit.ly/MozNews2020
Downloadable books: http://bit.ly/Hanlon-books Election data: http://bit.ly/MozElData
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ARTICLES MAY BE FREELY REPRINTED but please cite the source: "Mozambique News Reports and Clippings".   Previous newsletters are posted on bit.ly/mozamb <http://bit.ly/mozamb> 
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