[Civsoc-mw] Secondary school enrollment data 2002-2004

[stevesharra at gmail.com]

Friends and colleagues,

When primary school enrollment in Malawi went up from 1.9 million in 1993 to 2.8 million in 1994, I'm thinking that the corresponding rise in secondary school enrollment should have been expected eight years later. Thus we should have seen secondary school enrollment drastically rise beginning in 2002. 

However the 2011 EMIS shows that secondary school enrollment actually went down from 57,000 in 2001 to 46,000 in 2002. It then went up by 9,000 from 2002 to 2003. It is in 2004 that we see it more than tripling, going from 55,000 in 2003 to 180,000 in 2004.

What am I missing? Does anybody have an explanation why the rise happened in 2004 and not in 2002 or 2003? Or why enrollment went down in 2002 when it shouldmhave gone up? 

Unfortunately the 2011 EMIS doesn't have figures for the number of secondary schools for the 1994-2004 period (I remember there was a World Bank project that was said to be building 250 secondary schools but the actual number ended up being much less) nor the numbers of Standard 1 pupils in 1994 to track them to secondary school selection. If anybody has documents where I can find the missing information, I will be most grateful.

Regards,

Steve