[civsoc-mw] {Disarmed} FW: Cabo Delgado research - Mozambique 521 part 2

[cammack at mweb.co.za]

Why people join the insurgency in northern Moz. You can subscribe to this moz news clippings for free…

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From: J.Hanlon <j.hanlon at open.ac.uk> 
Sent: 05 February 2021 02:10
To: Dev-Mozambique-List <dev-mozambique-list at open.ac.uk>
Subject: Cabo Delgado research - Mozambique 521 part 2

 

MOZAMBIQUE 521
News reports & clippings

 4 February 2021 - part 2
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Editor: Joseph Hanlon (  <mailto:j.hanlon at open.ac.uk> j.hanlon at open.ac.uk)

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This newsletter was censored by Microsoft Forefront. The first half was successfully sent. This is the second part, and the whole newsletter in pdf is on  <http://bit.ly/Moz-521> http://bit.ly/Moz-521
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In this issue
Cabo Delgado studies
+ Backing insurgents in Mocimboa da Praia
+ Not a religious conflict
+ Development is best counter-insurgency strategy
+ Vampires, lions, and structural violence

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Cabo Delgado Studies

Several very good studies of Cabo Delgado were published in January. All but one are only in Portuguese.

Local people say why some back &
join insurgents in Mocimboa da Praia 

"Some support given by the population to the insurgents was justified by the lack of jobs, or by discontent with the irregular action of the municipal police, or by the existence in the group of armed men familiar to some of the people," explanted the authors of a Universidade Rovuma (Pemba) study that interviewed 206 people who had fled Mocimboa da Praia. "Terrorist attacks in Cabo Delgado (2017-2020): the causes of the phenomenon from the mouths of the population of Mocimboa da Praia" ("Ataques Terroristas em Cabo Delgado (2017-2020): as causas do fenomeno pela boca da populacao de Mocimboa da Praia") in Portuguese only is on https://bit.ly/MozAtaquesMocim

"The armed group, in the first phase, was composed mostly of young people from Mocimboa da Praia," notes the study. "The research data showed that Mocimboa da Praia became the epicentre of terrorist attacks due to its geostrategic location, the occurrence of ethnic conflicts (mainly between Makondes and Mwanis), the spread of Islamic extremism and the adherence of a significant number of local young people to the terrorist group. Most of these young people were convinced to join the group under promises of better employment, monetary payments and scholarships in foreign Koranic schools."

Four issues caused people to join or support the insurgents:
+ Failure of public policies: poverty, sense of exclusion, unemployment and illiteracy rate. When asked why people joined the insurgents, half said it was related to jobs. Some Mwanis say they are labeled as opposition and refused jobs.
+ Islamic radicalism.
+ Ethnic issues: Mwanis vs Makondes
+ Bad relations between the defence forces and the population: demanding money, looting, physical aggression and even assassinations of people suspected of being insurgents.

Most interesting is the way the fundamentalists used the grievances, especially about jobs, to groom and recruit young me. The lack of jobs meant many young men were just hanging around doing nothing. Suddenly in 2017 some of them became street traders, apparently funded by the fundamentalists to show they could create jobs. One interviewee said "many young people who did nothing but play cards suddenly became merchants". Some of them and others joined the insurgents because they offered jobs and money. Another interviewee said: "They convince you that there will be good life when you join the group they are training to fight against the government".

OMR: Not a religious conflict

"Although the discontent in Northern Mozambique is expressed in religious language and symbolism, all the webinar speakers agreed that this is not a religious conflict," reports the Rural Observatory (OMR, Observatorio do Meio Rural) in its report of its webinar series How is Cabo Delgado, published 29 January. In English https://omrmz.org/omrweb/download/7737 and in Portuguese https://omrmz.org/omrweb/download/7738

The report is a very good way to catch up on the Cabo Delgado civil war and has good articles on history, religion, the military stalemate, and resettlement. The article on the war is pessimistic: "The current scenario leads us to believe that, in the coming years, there will be a militarization of the Northeast of Cabo Delgado, with all the villages abandoned and the establishment of security corridors, a catastrophic scenario for the civilian population."

"Emerging youth in a situation of waithood, with strong difficulties of socio-economic integration, competes not only with older and established generations, but also among themselves, often for low-paid and socially not prestigious jobs. … The coexistence of phenomena of poverty in an emerging consumer society and the frustration of the high initial expectations surrounding extractive activities contributed to the worsening of tensions. The situation is aggravated by the absence of formal channels for socio-political participation and negotiation, with feelings of absence of political representation, contributing to the development of a perspective of violence, as a legitimate vehicle for participation."

"With limited possibility for participation, young people are coerced into following the proselytizing of Muslim groups who have studied abroad, being exposed to Salafist and Wahhabi Islamic ideologies, increasing local cleavages."

OMR: social and economic development
is best counter-insurgency strategy

"Although the conflict inevitably involves military intervention to provide security for the people and goods, the profound internal contradictions that exist require the implementation of a social and economic development plan, understood as the best counter-insurgency strategy, limiting the spread of armed conflict to other areas of the province marked by poverty and by historical relations of protest against the State," write Joao Feijo, Antonio Souto and Jerry Maquenzi in a detailed OMR paper on how to move forward with development, published 27 January.. https://omrmz.org/omrweb/download/7729 A linked paper by Joao Mosca and Jerry Maquenzi issued at the same time is on https://omrmz.org/omrweb/download/7733

IESE: vampires, lions, and structural violence

IESE (Instituto de Estudos Sociais e Economicos) has published a set of important reports relating to Cabo Delgado:
Vampiros, Jihadistas e Violência Estrutural em Moçambique: Reflexões sobre Manifestações Violentas de Descontentamento Local e as suas Implicações para a Construção da Paz, by Bernhard Weimer https://www.iese.ac.mz/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/CIESE19-BernhardWeimer.pdf
Proteccao social em contexto de terrorismo: que implicacoes tem a insurgencia islâmica nos mecanismos formais de proteccao social em Mocambique? by Moises Siûta https://www.iese.ac.mz/ideias-no-137-msiuta/
Cabo Delgado e o risco sistemico da guerra em Mocambique by Severino Ngoenha, Giverage do Amaral and Alcido Nhumaio. https://www.iese.ac.mz/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/SNgoenhaEtAlDesafios-2020.pdf

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