[civsoc-mw] FW: Mozambique 494 - Covid-19 worries; Cabo Delgado war, response, analysis - 9 July 2020

[King Kapito]

Thanks for this

On Fri, Jul 10, 2020, 12:43 <cammack at mweb.co.za> wrote:

> Events in neighbouring Moz. D
>
>
>
> *From:* J.Hanlon <j.hanlon at open.ac.uk>
> *Sent:* 09 July 2020 16:29
> *To:* Dev-Mozambique-List <dev-mozambique-list at open.ac.uk>
> *Subject:* Mozambique 494 - Covid-19 worries; Cabo Delgado war, response,
> analysis - 9 July 2020
>
>
>
> *MOZAMBIQUE*
> *494**News reports & clippings*
>
> *9 July 2020*=========
> Editor: Joseph Hanlon ( j.hanlon at open.ac.uk)
> To subscribe:  tinyurl.com/sub-moz
> To unsubscribe:  tinyurl.com/unsub-moz
> *Articles may be freely reprinted but please cite the source.*
> *===========================*
>
> *Attached: this newsletter in pdf*=============================
> *Also in this issue:*
>
> *   Cabo Delgado: Fight for control of the coast*
> *======================*
>
> *Covid-19: looking nervously over the border*
> The daily number of new cases of Covid-19 in Mozambique and neighbouring
> Zambia and Zimbabwe has remained constant for the past months, at 15-25
> cases per day. But in Malawi the daily number of cases has tripled in a
> month and it has jumped four-fold in South Africa. Neighbouring Tanzania
> stopped reporting Covid-19 cases two months ago and is closing treatment
> centres, but the number of cases is believed to be increasing rapidly.
>
> South Africa is particularly worrying. In Cape Town the virus has spread
> into the townships. In Khayelitsha Covid-19 "is spreading like wildfire";
> the local hospital is overwhelmed and people are being sent home to die.
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53256879
>
> Malawi's newly-elected President Lazarus Chakwera was inaugurated Monday
> at a ceremony attended by only 100 guests in the capital, Lilongwe. On
> Sunday he ordered that the ceremony be moved from the national stadium to
> the country's military headquarters as infection rates have jumped.
> Vice-President Saulos Chilima and his wife Mary said Sunday they had tested
> negative for coronavirus days after his personal secretary died from the
> virus. He said the surge in cases was "alarming and frightening".
>
> On Wednesday 8 July there were 31 new cases, bringing to total to 1071,
> and there have been 8 deaths. The largest number of active cases are in
> four provinces: Nampula: 247, Cabo Delgado: 177, Cidade de Maputo: 100, and
> Provincia de Maputo: 76. There are 2,311 people in quarantine. Six Covid-19
> patients remain hospitalized in isolation wards.
>
> Nearly all international flights to and from Mozambique in July have been
> cancelled; Portuguese airline TAP has had two flights to Maputo to evacuate
> Portuguese citizens, but they flew empty to Maputo as TAP refused to fly
> Mozambicans trying to return home. (*Carta de Mocambique* 8 July)
>
> School classes will resume on 27 July, for grade 12 only in those schools
> that meet conditions for preventing the spread of Covid-19. Initially only
> 170 state secondary schools out of 667 and 19 vocational training
> institutes, out of a total of 27, will reopen. Schools that do not meet the
> conditions will have their running water and toilet facilities upgraded, in
> a project budgeted at around $50 mn and expected to last three months.
>
> BBC 7 July report on Covid-19 in Africa
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53181555
>
>
>
> *5% infected in Nampula city;are numbers under-estimated?*
> The Ministry of Health did a sample survey in Nampula city, which showed
> Covid-19 in all neighbourhoods and 5% of people infected, with 66% having
> no symptoms. Two neighbourhoods showed 11% infected, while the others were
> 1-6%. The survey of 6272 covered both neighbourhoods and key occupational
> groups. Market traders were worst affected, with 10% positive for Covid-19,
> and 21% in the central market. Of health workers tested, 7% have had
> Covid-19.  https://t.co/gyQRIiCCJT?amp=1
>
> Sam Joes from UNU-Wider makes the point that Nampula city has a population
> of about 820,000 and if 5% are infected, that would be 41,000 cases in
> Nampula alone, yet the whole province of Nampula is reported to have only
> 314 cases. That would mean that only 1 in each 130 cases is being found and
> reported. Considering that 34% have symptoms, this suggests that less than
> 3% of cases with symptoms are being identified in Nampula city.
> https://twitter.com/esamjones
>
>
>
> *Cabo Delgado: Fight for control of the coast*
> Fighting is driving people out of the coastal zone from Mocimboa da Praia
> 70 km south to Quiterajo, as insurgents try to control an area important
> for boats smuggling and supplying the gas field at Palma.
>
> Mocimboa da Praia was occupied for the third time on 27 June. Insurgents
> finally left the town on 1 July and defence forces returned the next day.
> But insurgents remained in the outskirts of the town and controlled access
> roads until at least 7 July, and there were reports of gunfire. (MediaFax 3
> & 6 July, VOA 8 July) Mayor Carlos Monba told STV (7 July) that all
> government infrastructure had been totally destroyed. Insurgents
> "vandalised everything. No government service is working. Everything is
> stopped." he said. Most people have fled the town, and 20,000 people are in
> refugee camps and in Mueda and Pemba. (*O Pais* 8 July)
>
> Up to 100 people were killed in the fighting and a number kidnapped.
> Insurgents destroyed the Catholic church, secondary school, and local
> hospital, and did major damage to businesses and houses. The was also
> damage due to shelling. Pinnacle News photos of extensive damage and burned
> buildings in Mocimboa da Praia
>
> https://www.facebook.com/pinnaclenews79/photos/pcb.3051714414914318/3051709944914765/?type=3&theater
>
>
> *Defence Forces in Mocimboa accused*
> Defence forces are accused to extortion, invading houses, and beating
> local people, according to residents of Mocimboa da Praia, reported in *Carta
> de Mocambique *today (9 July). People are careful to not meet soldiers on
> the street because they must pay MT 200 ($3) to be allowed to continue on
> their way. A soldiers in uniform was seen leaving the town with a
> television set taken from a house. This is justified by defence forces
> because they say local people have cooperated with and welcomed the
> insurgents, and even allowed them to stay in their homes. But defence force
> actions appear to be exacerbating hostility to government and support for
> the insurgents. https://bit.ly/Carta9Jul (in Portuguese)
>
> There is also an unconfirmed claim that defence forces assassinated four
> people in Unidade neighbourhood, and to have kidnapped people.
>
> The corpses of 26 people were found by residents of the Milamba
> neighbourhood of Mocimboa on 26 June. Two sources identified them as being
> civilians who police had arrested in the preceding nights. The bodies were
> discovered near the Quinhevo River, a few kilometres outside of Mocimboa. (*Cabo
> Ligado* 30 June)
>
> MediaFax (6 July) reports that with no government presence, there is
> anarchy in Mocimboa. After the insurgents left, some military and police
> also vandalised infrastructure and looted what was left in shops, market
> stalls and houses. Zitamar (8 July) reported that owners of local
> businesses appealed to national business association CTA to intervene to
> try to stop the military ransacking commercial premises in the town.
>
> *Nearly all villages in Quiterajo are now abandoned* according to *Carta
> de Mocambique* (7 July). Communications are now so poor that an attack on
> Ilala village which killed 18 people about two weeks ago has only now been
> reported. Carta reports that insurgents went from door to door, asking who
> had just arrived in the village from Macomia after the 28 May raid there.
> Anyone who admitted that they were from Macomia town was shot dead. Nearby
> Simbolongo village (Mucojo district) was attacked on 4 July and three
> people killed.
>
> *District government has left Quissanga* and is working from Metuge, near
> Pemba, according to the district administrator, Bartolomeu Muibo. The 25
> March attack on the town destroyed government facilities and all the
> district records, he said. (STV, Lusa 8 July) Quissanga was taken over by
> the military after the civilian administration fled.
>
> *1301 dead in Cabo Delgado civil war* according to ACLED in its latest
> weekly report.
>
> *250,000 people are displaced by the war* according to UN OCHA.
> https://t.co/7oVvc5mAnp?amp=1
>
> *Egidio Vaz is overseeing President* Filipe Nyusi's communications
> strategy, according to *Africa Intelligence *(9 July). As Filipe Nyusi's
> unofficial advisor, Vaz is playing a key role in defending Frelimo's
> response to the insurrection in Cabo Delgado. He has been active on social
> media attacking critics of Nyusi, and a February post called on government
> to take action, "including extrajudicial" measures, against journalists who
> are covering the rebel attacks in the north of the country. Vaz has worked
> for UK and Swiss aid agencies and runs a PR firm. The newsletter says,
> cautiously, "he may have been involved in launching a new anonymous website
> called *Noticias de Defesa* … that toes the government line." Vaz denies
> it. https://bit.ly/AfInVaz
>
> *Journalist Ibraimo Mbaruco is still missing*, 92 days after he was
> taken, apparently by the military. He is an announcer at the community
> radio and television station in Palma,
>
>
>
> *New research: insurgency remains local,and present counter-insurgency is
> not working*
> The civil war has provoked significant research, including three articles
> published this week.
>
> *The jihadi insurgency in Mozambique: origins, nature and beginning* in
> the *Journal of Eastern African Studies* is an important study by Eric
> Morier-Genoud, an expert on religion in Mozambique. He argues that the
> sect, which refers to itself as Al Shabaab, emerged around 2007 in Balama,
> and initially distanced itself from state institutions aiming to establish
> a counter-society ruled according to Islamic law (sharia). It was expelled
> by other Muslims from Balama and Chiure in the south of Cabo Delgado but
> gained a presence six other districts. Morier-Genoud argues "that the sect
> probably shifted to armed jihadism as a consequence of the repression it
> experienced from the mainstream Muslim organizations and, later on, the
> state - the latter’s involvement possibly tipping the sect into abandoning
> its approach of withdrawing from society." Finally, he argues "there
> certainly have been external influences and manipulations, and Al- Shabaab
> has indeed linked up with ISIS, but it is doubtful that these factors
> radically and definitively altered the nature of the insurgents." There is
> no evidence "which would indicate a take-over of Al-Shabaab by ISIS.
> Indeed, "there are already divergences between Al-Shabaab and ISIS." This
> is the best and most detailed study of the origins of the insurgency.
> The article is on https://doi.org/10.1080/17531055.2020.1789271, which is
> available only to university researchers; others must pay UK pounds 34.
> Eric Morier-Genoud says he hopes to have a free version on his website next
> week: https://bit.ly/EricM-G
>
> *Do impasse militar ao drama humanitario: Aprender com a historia e
> repensar a intervencao em Cabo Delgado* (From military stalemate to
> humanitarian drama: Learning from history and rethinking intervention in
> Cabo Delgado) by Joao Feijo of the Rural Areas Observatory (OMR) notes that
> an insurgency that started with a few machetes and guns has escalated,
> using captured weapons and vehicles, to be a serious threat. And he notes
> the standard guerrilla tactics of attack, occupation, and withdrawal. "In
> clear continuity with the guerrilla strategies used by Renamo, dozens or
> hundreds of women and young people are abducted." And attacks are on the
> symbols of the state or those linked to it. In the 27 June attack on
> Mocimboa da Praia, the 30 de Junho neighbourhood (where the Maconde
> population and civil servants are over-represented) was particularly
> targeted by insurgents. Attacks on residences of better off individuals and
> people politically aligned with Frelimo are often mentioned. Feijo points
> to history: in the 1960s "despite information about the discontent of
> peasant populations of the Maconde plateau, in its official speeches, the
> colonial government opted for the de-mozambicanization of the conflict,
> calling the Frelimo guerrillas Tanzanians manipulated by Russians and
> Chinese. … Once again, government ignores historical phenomena of
> marginalisation of local people by the state." Finally he points to growing
> excesses by the security forces, which "reinforce people's distrust of the
> security forces and central power, increasing resentment and broadening the
> base of recruitment of disgruntled young people."
> In Portuguese only on https://omrmz.org/omrweb/publicacoes/dr-93/
>
> *"Militarization of Cabo Delgado is likely to prolong the insurgency"*,
> warn MediaFax and Zitamar (7 July). In June Tomas Bedae, Commander of the
> Lakes and Rivers Police Regiment of Cabo Delgado, was appointed district
> administrator of Macomia, and Ana Combo, director of the police training
> college in Nhamatanda, Sofala, was named administrator of Mueda.
> Indiscriminate action by the defence forces against unarmed populations,
> may set the stage for more conflicts for many more years, said Jerry
> Manghezi, a researcher at the Rural Areas Observatory (OMR) think tank. He
> warned that many people already felt excluded from accessing state
> resources, and when the defence forces started attacking them, they stopped
> collaborating and started protecting the supposed insurgents. “Military
> intervention must not be lacking, but the state should focus more on
> actions that promote local development, providing more basic public
> services,” he said. The article in English is on
>
> https://zitamar.com/militarization-of-cabo-delgado-likely-to-prolong-the-insurgency/
>
>
> *Islamic state warns South Africa against intervention*
> Noting that Mozambique is looking for foreign military support, Islamic
> State's *al-Naba'* newsletter (3 July) warned South Africa that if it
> intervened, this "may result in pushing the soldiers of the Islamic State
> to open a fighting front inside its borders." And it adds "If the Crusaders
> reckon that their support for the disbelieving government in Mozambique
> will protect their investments and guarantee the continuation of their
> plunder of the resources of the region, they are deluded," and the
> "soldiers of the Caliphate" will push them out of the gas fields.
>
> The statement and an English translation are on
> http://www.aymennjawad.org/2020/07/islamic-state-editorial-on-mozambique
>
> *South Africa has soldiers in Mozambique* Kobus Marais MP told the South
> African parliamentary defence committee Wednesday (9 July). They are
> apparently from the maritime reaction squadron. South African Defence
> Forces refused to comment. (News24 9 July)
>
> *How the Frelimo elite profited from Sasol Inhambane gas*
>
> The Frelimo elite and party, rather than the state, gained the profits
> from the gas in Inhambane by "creatively" managing the contract and
> domestic gas sales, according to a detailed study to be published in the
> journal *The Extractive Industries and Society*.
>
> Sasol developed the relatively small Pande and Temane gas fields from 2001
> and built an 865 km pipeline to South Africa. The project was majority
> owned by Sasol and part by CMH, a subsidiary of the state oil and gas
> company ENH, and a small part by IFC, the World Bank investment arm. In
> 2009 part of CMH passed to private shareholders "all directly or indirectly
> related to the Frelimo *nomenklatura*", with no public record of how this
> was done or if they paid for their shares.
>
> The researchers found that in preference to simply taking royalties from
> the exported gas, Mozambique opted for a production sharing agreement, with
> ENH taking a portion of the physical gas (known as domestic gas, a model
> also used in Cabo Delgado). At first, ENH could not use the domestic gas
> and simply sold it to Sasol, with no record of what happened to the money.
> In 2009 a group of companies were set up to use the gas, owned by a careful
> balance of groups connected to the faction of Joaquim Chissano, a group
> connected to Armando Guebuza, and to the Frelimo party holding company SPI.
> Up to 75% of the gas was used to generate electricity; ENH sold the gas
> cheaply to the four companies and the electricity generators have a long
> term contract with the state electricity company EDM paying them much more
> than EDM pays for Cahora Bassa hydro-electricity. All of this was done in
> secret without public tenders.
>
> The authors argue that Mozambique is similar to many other poor developing
> countries: "Unlike well-developed capitalist economies, which would be able
> to generate sufficient surpluses and revenues to sustain the regime,
> developing countries rely to a great extent on informal, extra-legal
> resources and rents that are typically orchestrated using the state and its
> control over the government to create spaces for rent-seeking."
>
> "The politics of domestic gas: The Sasol natural gas deals in Mozambique"
> is by Padil Salimo (based on PhD research), Lars Buura, and Jose Jaime
> Macuane. The paper is on
> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214790X20301593 which
> requires a university access to the journal. (Knowledge about Mozambique is
> not free. But copies can be arranged for Mozambican scholars.)
>
> *Sasol is quitting its exploration in Inhambane* and is handing back to
> the government blocks 16 and 19, the company said on 6 July. This follows
> its 27 June announcement that it will sell its 50% share of the
> Inhambane-South Africa pipeline and the Ressano Garcia gas fired power
> station, as it tries to recuperate from a disastrous US investment hit by
> plummeting gas prices. It won the exploration license in 2005 but failed to
> find gas or oil. The coastal blocks include the Bazaruto Archipeligo
> National Park and important tourist areas of Vilankulo, and border the
> Temane and Pande production areas which are inland, to the west of blocks
> 16 and 19.
>
>
> *Coal mine resettlement struggle continues after 8 years*
> Indian company Jindal started coal mining in Tete in 2012 but only finally
> agreed last year to resettle 289 families of the Cassoca community. Some
> have now been moved to new houses, but they blocked the entrances to
> Jindal’s mine on Monday (6 July) saying the land offered to them is not
> suitable for farming. (Zitamar 8 July)
>
> Anoop Kumar, Jindal Africa’s head of human resources, confirmed that mine
> activities were paralysed. He said the government, not the company, should
> be blamed for not allocating land to the population. "We accepted that we
> have to resettle the families … but it’s the government who should be
> giving them fields,” Kumar said.
>
> ============
> ARTICLES MAY BE FREELY REPRINTED but please cite the source: "Mozambique
> News Reports and Clippings".   Previous newsletters are posted on
> bit.ly/mozamb
>
> =========================================
>
>
> *Important external linksCabo Delgado civil war* weekly report - Zitamar,
> MediaFax, ACLED - http://bit.ly/CaboLigado
> *Covid-19* daily updated data and graphs https://covidmoz.netlify.app/
> Previous editions of this newsletter: bit.ly/MozNews2020
> Downloadable books: http://bit.ly/Hanlon-books Election data:
> http://bit.ly/MozElData
> =========================================
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> =========================================
> *Background reading*
>
>
> *Special reports*
> *Mozambique heroin transit trade*   English - LSE -
> http://bit.ly/Moz-heroin
>    Portuguese - Pt - CIP - http://bit.ly/HeroinaPT
>
> *Gas for development?*   Gas_for_development_or just_for_money?_2015
> bit.ly/MozGasEng
>    Gás_para_desenvolvimento_ou_apenas_dinheiro?_2015 bit.ly/MozGasPt
> Social protection report - 2017 Mozambique - http://bit.ly/MozSocPro
> Special report on four poverty surveys: bit.ly/MozPoverty
> 2018 Constitution - http://bit.ly/2KF588T
> Minimum wage and exchange rates 1996-2018 -- http://bit.ly/MinWage18
>
> *$2bn secret debt - in English*   Kroll - Full report on $2bn debt -
> http://bit.ly/Kroll-Moz-full
>    Kroll report summary - http://bit.ly/Kroll-sum
>    Key points of Mozambique parliament report - Nov 2016 -
> http://bit.ly/MozAR-debt-En
>    Following the donor-designed path to Mozambique's $2.2 bn debt -
> http://bit.ly/3WQ-hanlon
>
> *In Portuguese:*   Parliamentary Report on the Secret Debt (complete)
> bit.ly/MozAR-debt
>
> *Election study collaboration*: We have detailed election data from 1999
> through 2014 and are inviting scholars to use this data collaboratively.
> http://bit.ly/MozElData
> Election newsletters are on http://bit.ly/2H066Kg
>
> *Eight books by Joseph Hanlon can be downloaded, free*
> *: http://bit.ly/Hanlon-books <http://bit.ly/Hanlon-books>*Bangladesh
> confronts climate change (2016)
> Chickens and beer:  A recipe for agricultural growth in Mozambique (2014)
> Há Mais Bicicletas – mas há desenvolvimento? (2008)
> Moçambique e as grandes cheias de 2000 (2001)
> Paz Sem Beneficio: Como o FMI Bloqueia a Reconstrução (1997)
> Peace Without Profit: How the IMF Blocks Rebuilding (1996)
> Mozambique: Who Calls the Shots (1991)
> Mozambique: The Revolution Under Fire (1984)
>
>
> *Two more will be available shortly to download:*Apartheid’s 2nd Front
> (1986)
> Mozambique and the Great Flood of 2000
>
>
> *These are still available for sale:*Galinhas e cerveja: uma receita para
> o crescimento (2014) (free in English)
> Zimbabwe takes back its land (2013)
> Just Give Money to the Poor: The Development Revolution from the Global
> South (2010)
> Do bicycles equal development in Mozambique? (2008) (free in Portuguese)
> Beggar Your Neighbours: Apartheid Power in Southern Africa (1986)
> =========
> This mailing is the personal responsibility of Joseph Hanlon, and does not
> necessarily represent the views of the Open University.
> =============================
>
>
>
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