[civsoc-mw] FW: Mozambique 480 - Quirimba attached; helicopter shot down - 10 Apr 2020

Sat Apr 11 11:12:10 CAT 2020

The war in Moz is hotting up, if you had not been following… SA is now involved. D

From: J.Hanlon <j.hanlon at open.ac.uk> 
Sent: 11 April 2020 01:05
To: Dev-Mozambique-List <dev-mozambique-list at open.ac.uk>
Subject: Mozambique 480 - Quirimba attached; helicopter shot down - 10 Apr 2020

MOZAMBIQUE 480
News reports & clippings

10 April 2020
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Attack on Quirimba Island; helicopter shot down

Insurgents in small boats landed last night (Thursday 9 April) on Quirimba Island just off the coast of Quissanga; South African private military forces responded and one of their helicopters was shot down this morning morning (Friday 10 Apr) although the crew was rescued. (Moz24h, Zitamar 10 Feb) For maps of the Cabo Delgado war zone, see https://bit.ly/Mozam-479. The map below shows the more detailed area. In the past month, insurgents have moved south from Macomia through Bilibiza (which they reoccupied on Tuesday) and then Quissanga, and have now made the 7 km water crossing to Quirimba Island. Many people fled Quissanga before the attacks there, and were refugees on Quirimba. Pinnacle News (https://www.facebook.com/pinnaclenews79) says the insurgents destroyed some government installations but left after the South African attack.

South African helicopter gunships in Cabo Delgado

Light helicopter gunships strafed a base of the insurgents in Mueda area on Wednesday and then attacked their bases in Mbau in Mocimboa da Praia and in Muidumbe on Thursday, according to Peter Fabricius in Daily Maverick (9 April, bit.ly/Fabricius-9Apr) The attacks did not include ground forces although these might follow later. 

A Gazelle gunship and a Cessna Caravan fixed-wing personnel carrier arrived in Pemba last weekend. On Wednesday they were joined by three helicopters - another Gazelle gunship, a Bell UH I “Huey” and a Bell 406 Long Ranger - and one fixed-wing Diamond DA42. The attacks were carried out by the South African private security company Dyck Advisory Group, according to Daily Maverick. Moz24h reports that they are based at the Pemba Naval Base and were involved in the attack on Quirimba invaders Friday morning. Pinnacle News says that it was one of the Gazelles which was shot down, and that at least one insurgent boat was sunk. "Gunship" means a man sitting at the door of the helicopter with a heavy machine gun.

Dyck Advisory Group (DAG) replaces the Russian Wagner Group which withdrew, defeated, last month. According to Daily Maverick DAG is "owned by former Zimbabwean military colonel Lionel Dyck who is believed to be close to Zimbabwean President Emerson Mnangagwa." Lionel Dyck was involved in Zanu-PF politics and various projects from 2002 to have Mnangagwa replace Robert Mugabe. Max Dyke is part of the group, and according to its website (https://www.dyckadvisorygroup.com/) was a guide on the Zambezi River and was involved in demining in Mozambique in 1997. Their website says DAG has "undertaken security-based operations" in Mozambique and has "counter poaching operations … currently running in Mozambique". Zitamar (10 Apr) says Dyke helped Mozambique take Renamo's Gorongosa base in 1985.

Militarization of Cabo Delgado

Local media reported that in many districts of Cabo Delgado impacted by the insurgency, civilian officials have recently been replaced by military officers as the security situation has deteriorated, according to Intelyse (9 Apr). In Pemba, nervous police and military have imposed an unofficial 19h00 curfew. Tension is increasing because of the failure of the military to challenge the insurgency, and rumours have raced through Pemba in recent days that it will be attacked by the insurgents. 

Tactical comment: Although insurgents have attacked district towns, they probably do not have the capacity to attack a city. They do seem to be often using Renamo tactics; during the 1980s war Renamo had Beira surrounded but attacks were mainly on electricity lines and water supply pipes outside the city, in rural areas harder to guard. Initially, a similar action would seem more likely than a frontal attack on the city.  jh

Battle and massacre?

Savana today (10 April) reports an insurgent defeat and massacre not reported or verified elsewhere. The Macondis from Mueda were a key part of the guerrillas fighting for independence 50 years ago and still represent a militant force. Savana says that faced with the failure of the army and police to stop the insurgent attacks in Muidumbe district earlier this week and their move toward Mueda, war veterans (and presumably their children) confronted the insurgents in a blind valley near Mitenda, and killed 30 insurgents. Pinnacle News (https://www.facebook.com/pinnaclenews79) suggests that South African helicopters may have been part of the attack on the insurgents. Savana says that in retaliation, in their occupation of Xitaxi village on Wednesday, insurgents decapitated and machine-gunning local people, killing 50-70. Xitaxi is on the main N380 road. None of this is independently confirmed, and Zitamar (10 Apr) says only 14 were killed in Xitaxi.

Military detains Palma journalist

Journalist and announcer of Palma Community Radio, Ibraimo Abu Mbaruco. disappeared Tuesday 7 April on his way home from work, just after sending an SMS to a colleague saying he was surrounded by soldiers. Nothing has been heard from him since, and he cannot be located. The local chapter of the MISA (Media Institute of Southern Africa) could not locate him, and issued a statement this afternoon expressing concern.

Comment: The crackdown on formal news coverage in Cabo Delgado at the same time that there is widespread social media reporting - with inaccuracies and fake news - makes it very difficult to confirm what is happening in the civil war. I call this newsletter News Reports and Clippings because that is what it is - a compilation of news reports - with my own judgements and commentaries. For that reason I try to always give sources and make some judgements as to what is verifiable. But this becomes increasingly difficult in Cabo Delgado. Were 14 or 70 killed in Xitaxi? So I apologize for the inevitable errors. I try. jh

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Background reading

Special reports
Mozambique heroin transit trade
   English - LSE - http://bit.ly/Moz-heroin
   Portuguese - Pt - CIP - http://bit.ly/HeroinaPT
Gas for development?
   Gas_for_development_or just_for_money?_2015 bit.ly/MozGasEng
   Gás_para_desenvolvimento_ou_apenas_dinheiro?_2015 bit.ly/MozGasPt
Social protection report - 2017 Mozambique - http://bit.ly/MozSocPro
Special report on four poverty surveys: bit.ly/MozPoverty
2018 Constitution - http://bit.ly/2KF588T
Minimum wage and exchange rates 1996-2018 -- http://bit.ly/MinWage18
$2bn secret debt - in English
   Kroll - Full report on $2bn debt - http://bit.ly/Kroll-Moz-full
   Kroll report summary - http://bit.ly/Kroll-sum
   Key points of Mozambique parliament report - Nov 2016 - http://bit.ly/MozAR-debt-En
   Following the donor-designed path to Mozambique's $2.2 bn debt - http://bit.ly/3WQ-hanlon
In Portuguese:
   Parliamentary Report on the Secret Debt (complete) bit.ly/MozAR-debt

Election study collaboration: We have detailed election data from 1999 through 2014 and are inviting scholars to use this data collaboratively. http://bit.ly/MozElData
Election newsletters are on http://bit.ly/2H066Kg

Eight books by Joseph Hanlon can be downloaded, free: http://bit.ly/Hanlon-books
Bangladesh confronts climate change (2016)
Chickens and beer:  A recipe for agricultural growth in Mozambique (2014)
Há Mais Bicicletas – mas há desenvolvimento? (2008)
Moçambique e as grandes cheias de 2000 (2001)
Paz Sem Beneficio: Como o FMI Bloqueia a Reconstrução (1997)
Peace Without Profit: How the IMF Blocks Rebuilding (1996)
Mozambique: Who Calls the Shots (1991)
Mozambique: The Revolution Under Fire (1984)

Two more will be available shortly to download:
Apartheid’s 2nd Front (1986)
Mozambique and the Great Flood of 2000

These are still available for sale:
Galinhas e cerveja: uma receita para o crescimento (2014) (free in English)
Zimbabwe takes back its land (2013)
Just Give Money to the Poor: The Development Revolution from the Global South (2010)
Do bicycles equal development in Mozambique? (2008) (free in Portuguese) 
Beggar Your Neighbours: Apartheid Power in Southern Africa (1986)

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