[Civsoc-mw] ISS on Mw election

[cammack at mweb.co.za]

Malawi's election is impossible to call 

 



20th May 2019 

By:  <https://www.polity.org.za/author.php?u_id=1060> ISS, Institute for
Security Studies 

In the last months of former president Bingu wa Mutharika's rule, his
relations with his vice-president soured to such a degree that Joyce Banda
formed her own political party and intended to run against her boss in the
upcoming election. She was frustrated by the corruption endemic to his
administration, as well as his increasingly erratic decision making that had
plunged Malawi into an economic crisis.

In the end, Mutharika's sudden death in office in April 2012 meant that the
electoral battle between the president and his running mate never came to
pass. But as Malawi prepares for another election tomorrow, 21 May, the
echoes of this recent history are impossible to ignore.

Once again, there is a Mutharika in State House: this time it's Peter, who
assumed control of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) following
the death of his brother, and trounced Joyce Banda in the 2014 election.

Once again, the country is in the midst of an economic malaise, battling
high inflation (10.4% in 2018) and sluggish economic growth (3.7% in the
2017/18 financial year). It remains one of the poorest countries in Africa,
and is only getting poorer: the poverty rate increased from 50.4% in 2010 to
51.5% in 2017.

Once again, a Mutharika president has totally alienated his deputy, to such
a degree that Vice-President Saulos Chilima will be competing against his
boss under the banner of a new party, the United Transformation Movement.
(Because of the nature of Malawi's constitution, a president does not have
the authority to fire his deputy, even when they fall out.)

Writing in the Mail & Guardian, Chilima offered a withering assessment of
the current Mutharika administration, despite his own involvement in it.
'Malawians are patient and hardworking people. However, I felt that along
the way their patience was being taken for granted by those they entrusted
with the lever of power.

'Corruption has been worsening. Nepotism has been festering. Cronyism and
rent-seeking was tolerated if not encouraged. Our party manifesto, which
promised clean and transparent government, was abandoned and replaced with a
myopic and increasingly autocratic way of governing and further perpetrated
by a tribal cabal.'

Billy Mayaya, a prominent human rights activist and political analyst,
agrees. 'At the top of the list [of Malawi's challenges] is corruption,
especially corruption within the rank and file of the ruling party, the DPP.
And then secondly the issues of unemployment and the lack of progress
generally within Malawi. A lot of donor money and taxpayer money has gone to
waste because of corruption, and that has impacted on the lack of progress
and development.'

But Mayaya cautions that Chilima, who was a businessman before entering the
political fray, is a relatively untested commodity whose impact on the
election is difficult to predict. 'His party has only been in existence for
10 months, so it is difficult to tell whether he will commit to development.
He will divide the votes of the ruling party, as he is slowly attracting the
attention of the youth.'

This could pave the way to power for Lazarus Chakwera, the veteran
opposition leader who is head of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP), the
liberation movement-turned-political party that ruled the country for
decades. From 1966 to 1993 the MCP was the only legal political party, but
it was chucked out of office at the first possible opportunity - when
multiparty elections were held in 1994.

Chakwera has overseen a resurgence in the MCP's popularity, and he is hoping
to mount a real challenge this time around. It should help that the MCP has
the support of Banda's People's Party, after she withdrew from the race in
March.

At this point, and in the absence of reliable polls, the election is too
close to call, with any one of the three frontrunners in with a chance.
(There is no provision for a run-off election, which means that whichever
candidate receives the most votes will be president.)

This could lead to complications after the vote, explains Malawian academic
Jimmy Kainja, in an analysis for African Arguments: 'The tight contest means
that there is a good chance the elections results will be disputed. In fact,
both Mutharika and Chilima appear to be preparing for such an outcome and
have accused each other of plotting to rig the vote.

'This not only arguably marks a new low point in the relations between the
president and his deputy, but could reflect how much is riding on the
election for the DPP and UTM,' said Kainja.

A loss could be devastating for the political futures of both the president
and his deputy. Kainja added: 'Unlike the MCP, which has survived as an
opposition party for decades, the DPP and UTM could struggle if they do not
win. At 78 years old, Mutharika would be unlikely to contest again and the
DPP may find it difficult to stay intact without him.

'Meanwhile, there is a good chance Chilima will abandon politics if he does
not become president. He is not running to be an MP and could easily return
to the private sector, where he previously had a successful career, if he
does not get his way.'

As Malawi's 6.9 million registered voters head to the polls, it is clear
that there are few certainties in this election - except, perhaps, for the
fact that whoever does end up winning it has plenty of work to do.

Written by Simon Allison, ISS Consultant 

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