[Civsoc-mw] Trump's noise on North Korea: the view from Hong Kong

[Louis Nthenda]

Dateline: Hong Kong
Five reasons why the US cannot attack North Korea like it did Syria

Treaties, uncertainties over Pyongyang’s nuclear readiness, and the sheer
scale of armaments on both sides maintain a delicate truce on the Korean
peninsula US President Donald Trump’s sudden strike on Syria and
Washington’s doubling down on aggressive military posturing has led to wide
speculation that Pyongyang could be the next target for unilateral
action. option
is among the options under review, there are many signs that North Korea is
not Syria – as military action against the former carries far greater risks.

*1. Why can’t the US attack North Korea like it did Syria?*

The Korean Peninsula technically remains in a state of war. Fighting halted
on July 27, 1953 under an armistice signed between Washington and Beijing.
If the US initiated an attack, it would break the treaty endorsed by the
United Nations.

*2. What are the most important differences between North Korea and Syria?*

While Syria is believed to have pursued nuclear weapons, North Korea’s
nuclear weapons capabilities have matured in recent years. Pyongyang has
conducted five nuclear tests and claims it has successfully “miniaturised”
nuclear warheads – though such claims have never been independently
verified. It experienced a series of embarrassing failures while launching
the Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile last year. Despite that,
military experts believe that North Korea learnt from those setbacks and
might even be able to develop a nuclear-tipped, intercontinental ballistic
missile that can reach the United States within the coming four years,
during Trump’s presidency.

*3. Why must China stand by North Korea if it is attacked by the US?*

China is North Korea’s ally. In 1961, the two countries signed the
Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty, in which
both parties are obliged to offer immediate military and other assistance
to the other in the case of an outside attack. This treaty has been
prolonged twice, and is valid until 2021.

*4.* *Why does China insist on a peaceful resolution and oppose military
option floated by the US?*

China is concerned that its border provinces would be inundated with North
Korean refugees if the Kim regime collapsed. From a geopolitical point of
view, Beijing views North Korea as a buffer zone from the potential
encroachment by powers are aligned with the US, including Japan and South
Korea.

*5. Besides China, which other countries oppose a military strike against
Pyongyang?*

Both South Korea and Japan prefer non-military option. The South Korean
capital, Seoul, is only about 40km from the border and is particularly
vulnerable to North Korean attack. Sam Gardiner, a retired Air Force
colonel, was quoted by an interview by *The* *Atlantic* magazine as saying
the US “cannot protect Seoul, at least for the first 24 hours of a war, and
maybe for the first 48”. Even though former US president Bill Clinton
seriously debated bombing the Yongbyon reactor in 1994, he was convinced by
his defence officials that the intensity of combat with North Korea “would
be greater than any the world has witnessed since the last Korean War”.

On Mon, Apr 17, 2017 at 3:50 AM, Louis Nthenda <louisnthenda at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Opinion from the South China Morning Post, April 15, 2017
>
> http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/
> article/2087904/five-reasons-why-us-cannot-attack-north-korea-it-did
>
>
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